"HatTip" - Fool's Gold

Gold is doing what it generally does best: quietly disappointing people.

Yet three or four years ago articles espousing the wonders of gold as an investment were commonplace. Presently, however, such glowing testimonials are hard to find. Why?

Gold does not produce anything of value nor does it provide a stream of income. You buy it and hope another mug will eventually come along and offer you more for it. This is the "Greater Fool" investment approach (see also the "Dot.Com Boom" of the late 1990s).

So what is the appeal?

Gold is touted as a great way (often seemingly the only way) to protect your wealth against inflation. Over the last 30 years inflation has been relatively benign. The metal would not have needed to exert itself much to retain its value in real terms.

The question is: "Has It?"

In real terms (allowing for inflation) over the 30 years to the end of May 2014 gold has returned just over 1% a year. Before purchase and storage costs, that is. So, over a period of time where inflation has been low, gold has barely kept up with rising prices.

Pretty though, ain't it?!

In that 30 year time span there were periods when gold did spectacularly well. Which means - to achieve an average of 1% a year - there were also periods when it did spectacularly badly. By the time the hacks and the rent-a-gobs in the financial press were talking gold up as an investment the gains were gone: yesterday's return gives nothing to today's investor.

So why the love?

In 1984 you could just have easily bought an index linked gilt and held it to maturity; that would have guaranteed you an inflation busting return. But index linked gilts are not exciting, whereas gold has an allure, a literal as well as physical lustre, for some speculators investors.

30 years may sound like a very long time: in investment terms it is just a long time. Time enough for an asset class to assert itself. What has gold done?